Twitter Power

So I rattled off this quick Tweet this morning as I was venting over a slow net connection here at the office:

"#Sunshine Suites: These internets is running sloooow today"

And then I get this e-mail from our management company a couple of hours later:

"Hey Wayne,

Saw your post on twitter, let me know the details...

What seat are you sitting in and which floor?
How are you testing?
You are using ethernet?

- Jake"

That's some smart customer service right there!

The Current Financial Mess - Simplified!

The whirlwind of news surrounding the current financial mess we’re in has my head spinning.

First it’s foreclosures, then it’s Fannie and Freddie and then it’s Merril Lynch and AIG - when will it stop?

But more importantly than that, this rapid destruction of the American financial system has many people wondering how it got started to begin with?

That’s why I decided to write this week’s article in response to this question on TickerHound:

How did this financial mess get started in the first place?

So let’s go through it step-by-step, from the beginning until this weekend when the Government announced a $700 billion bailout of the financial services industry. It’s our tax dollars that will be financing this bailout so I think it’s important that we all understand how and why it happened.I. It all started in the housing and mortgage market:

Basically, lenders were loaning money to whoever wanted to buy a home. Credit score, income and assets became irrelevant terms as brokers and local lenders rushed to issue new mortgages.

It seemed like a relatively “low risk” strategy at the time to many banks. Reason being, they figured that even if people stopped paying their mortgages, the housing market was doing so well that folks could just sell the house for a profit and pay back the remainder of the mortgage.

And that’s really where the trouble started.

II. Then the Investment Banks Got Involved:

Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) are nothing new on Wall Street. They’re sort of like bonds, meaning there’s a “principle amount” (the amount being loaned) and interest coupons (or payments) that would be paid monthly on the loan. However, MBS’s aren’t single loans.

Instead, these loans were really thousands of individual mortgages all pooled together to create a single, tradable security.

This is another reason why many lenders were happy to keep giving out mortgages to folks (even if they didn’t qualify). Local lenders knew that they’d be able to package up all those mortgages and just sell them right to the big investment banks and not have to worry.

The banks then turned around and would trade these Mortgage Backed Securities like they would a stock or a bond - trying to pocket profits in between each trade.

III. Bubbles

The basic assumption in this whole mess was that housing prices would continue to rise each year.

In fact, that assumption turned out to be pretty accurate. According to the S&P Case-Schiller Index, home prices nearly doubled across the country from 2001 - 2006.

That’s because it was so easy to get a mortgage, everybody wanted to buy a home. Thus spurring demand and in turn driving up prices further. It sort of became a self fulfilling prophecy, which in turn became a full-fledged housing bubble.

And just like any good bubble, it eventually had to pop!

IV. The “After-Pop”

So after the housing market finally started to tumble, the financial services industry went into a year-long death spiral. Here’s the basic sequence of events:

1. People couldn’t afford their mortgages anymore.
2. They couldn’t sell their homes for more than they paid due to falling prices
3. So they defaulted on their loans - this happened to millions of people!
4. The big investment banks which now owned all the mortgages suddenly realized that these “assets” were virtually becoming worthless in a very short period of time.
5. So the banks had to take massive write-downs on these loans. The way this works is the banks were considering these baskets of mortgages as assets on their balance sheets. Once the assets went from being worth $100 to $1, the banks basically lost 99% of their value.
6. When that happened it made it very difficult for the banks to get loans themselves (imagine applying for a loan when all you have is a pack of bubble gum and the clothes on your back - it’s not likely to happen).
7. When the banks couldn’t get their own loans they were either going to be forced into bankruptcy (Lehman Brothers) or had to be swallowed up by healthier firms (Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, etc.)

V. How the Government Got Involved

Ever since Bear Stearns went under the government has played a fairly prominent role in this whole mess.

But it wasn’t until we almost saw the implosion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that the government really made its presence felt.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are sort of like “buyers of last resort” in the mortgage market. They were established to maintain liquidity in these markets in the event of the large banks being unable to trade their Mortgage Backed Securities.

So in the end, Freddie and Fannie were sitting on trillions of dollars in bad home loans.

And while these companies were private organizations they were however government sponsored organizations. So if the government had let either one of these companies fail then it might’ve made it very difficult for the United States to keep selling debt to big foreign buyers, like China. Remember, it’s our ability to sell our debt to other countries that has been funding our country’s operations (e.g. wars, etc.) for the last several years.

VI. How AIG and Insurance Fit In

AIG came into the picture when it began selling “insurance” to the big banks.

This technically wasn’t insurance, but that was mainly due to clever wording on the part of AIG management. Because for all intents and purposes, they were basically insuring the mortgages held by the banks - this type of insurance was called a “Credit Default Swap”, or a CDS.

Basically, the banks would pay AIG a monthly fee and in turn AIG would promise to make the bank whole on any mortgages that defaulted (sure sounds like insurance to me).

At the time I’m sure this sounded like a good idea because everybody assumed housing prices would continue to rise.

Well we all know how that turned out and that’s why in the end AIG was left holding the bag for billions of dollars in bad loans.

VII. The Bailout

So that brings us to where we are today: On the eve of the largest government bailout of the private sector in the history of this country.

The implications for these actions are vast and complex.

On the one hand, the government has to do this; the alternatives are too disastrous to even comprehend. On the other hand, what type of message does this send to the banks going forward? That it’s ok to engage in risky, reckless behavior and they’ll always get bailed out in the end?

I think I’ll save the rest of my commentary for another post.

I hope this gives you a clear picture of why and how we got into our current predicament.

If you have any other questions on this topic feel free to go to TickerHound for the answers!

The China Adventures...Finally!

I know, I know, I promised to post these 2 months ago but I've got a good excuse.

TickerHound's been going surprisingly well this summer and it's been monopolizing the vast majority of my time. So now my blog AND my girlfriend hate me and my entrepreneurial spirit :(

j/k

In any case, here are my pics from June's trip to China...we had an AMAZING time!

Beijing is much cleaner than it was 3 years ago, but it also lost some of its "edge". There were no more gypsy cab drivers at the airport trying to drag me into their overpriced cabs, no more fake DVD's being sold on the streets of Beijing and my white T-shirts didn't turn brown from the rain anymore.

I guess some would call this progress, but for me, I missed my Beijing funk.

Don't get me wrong, there were still some funky sights to be seen, but China definitely got its act together for the Olympics.

Shanghai was great too, but then again, it always has been. I think on my next trip to China I'm staying out of the cities and heading into the countryside. It's high time I see what the vast majority of the country lives like, not just the wealthier (comparatively speaking) city folk.

So without further ado, heeeeeeere's China!

This was my friend Winston's wedding. His wife's mother was one of the higher ups at China's CCTV. Therefore, there were more people manning cranes, cameras and fog machines than there were guests!

Great wedding though! Congrats again Winston!

Who's ready to drink??


My boy Mao lives here.


I don't know why but I thought these outdoor, branded food/drink kiosks were so cool.

A spot of tea?

And now for the food!


I'll post more pics soon enough...this just made me reeeeeally hungry!

Hagel's So Far Ahead of the Curve...

"Stories offer potential to communicate some elements of tacit knowledge. They help to provide enough of a sense of context to reconstruct and extend parts of the tacit. Stories, properly told to communicate the richness of context, do not reduce to snippets."

From a recent John Hagel article that talks about where the internet might be headed.

For a long time I've been thinking about the concept of narratives and how they can be somehow structured and distributed to not only provide a new means of self expression but also to transfer knowledge. It's clear that it's on the mind's of other folks in this space and I can't wait to see some of the start-ups that begin to explore it.

We have a ton of narrative out here in the blogosphere -- who will dig through it to extract and present it all in a meaningful way?

A Quote I'm Pondering...

From Brad Burnham at Union Square Ventures:

All of this means that you will see subtle changes in the way we invest our new fund. We will be even more selective about the early stage Web services we back, looking for compelling differentiation, a discrete market focus, and clear evidence of sustainable user growth. You will also see us invest selectively in later stage opportunities that we believe are poised to grow as more users become more dependent on the Web to manage their daily lives.

I concur...

It's About Education, NOT Information

For investors, a proper education and investing framework should always trump access to "immediate information".

I know that automated information aggregation, synthesis and analysis is all the rage on Wall Street these days. Banks, traders and hedge funds are all jockeying to get the news first, fastest and interpreted in the most efficient manner.

But with the announcement that financial "intelligence" firm, Monitor110 will be shut down, it gives me reassurance that TickerHound's on education as opposed to information was the right path.

Case in Point:

This is currently the top headline on Yahoo! Finance (the largest financial portal on the web in terms of traffic):

Stocks trade higher on upbeat earnings results - Stocks are opening higher after stronger-than-expected quarterly results from names like Coca-Cola Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and United Technologies Corp. gave investors some reassurance about the health of the economy.

Ok, now if I were a regular Joe, I'd look at that headline and think, "Oh wow, looks like JP Morgan is pulling through and doing well despite all the turmoil in the financial markets."

But that wasn't the case at all.

In fact, the company's year-over-year profits were off by 53%!

And the comments from the company's CEO, Jamie Dimon, weren't particularly optimistic either:

"the economic environment to continue to be weak -- and to likely get weaker -- and for the capital markets to remain under stress." He added that "since substantial risks still remain on our balance sheet, these factors will likely affect our business for the remainder of the year or longer."

I don't know about you, but that doesn't sound very encouraging to me.

But the stock still rallied - all because analysts expected JP to do even worse than they did!

Trying to trade stocks based on the assumption that "maybe this company won't do as bad as everyone thinks", is a sucker's game. The media creates headlines like this to get people to read their articles and watch their TV shows...fuck that!

Investors need to tune out and rely on their own experience and their own education to make money in this market.

Mr. Dimon pretty much said, "things aint gonna get better for a while now, so don't expect much from us." The CEO of a company says that and what I really hear is, "Hey, don't buy our stock right now, you can buy it later this year for much cheaper."

Education, not information my friend...play this bear market, don't let it play you!

And I'm Back!

For those who don't know, I haven't been "State side" for the last few weeks.

I've been in China hanging out with Yao Ming and his crew preparing for the Olympics.

Ok, maybe it wasn't Yao Ming, but I was definitely hanging out hard in the Middle Kingdom with some old friends. I have plenty of pictures on the way, so sit tight.

All in all it was a great trip. I managed to eat food from over 10 different provinces, drink alcohol from over 15 countries and gain 10 lbs. in the process!

I even managed to get some work done. You can now see TickerHound prominently featured on OptionsZone.com's Question of the Day.

This is our 2nd widget partnership with many more on the way throughout the summer.

I hope everyone's having a great 4th of July weekend and I'll be back Monday with my first set of pics!