Showing posts with label TickerHound. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TickerHound. Show all posts

Friday, December 11, 2009

A “Funny Thing” Happened on My Way to Building My First Company...

Better late than never (I guess). I finally got around to writing a quick blog post on a press release that came out a few weeks ago...

I’m happy (and proud) to finally announce that Tycoon Publishing, the leading provider of premium online investor education, has acquired TickerHound.

Before I say anything else, I really have to take a moment to thank the New York technology community for all of the help, support and advice over the last few years.

Thanks to those who believed in us when we needed it. Thanks to those of you who gave us guidance when we needed it. And thanks for offering some constructive criticism when we needed to hear it.

Bringing a start-up from napkin to sale is an incredibly difficult process. Add that to the fact that I had the “brilliant” idea to start a finance-related company right before the "greatest financial crisis since the great depression," and the challenge becomes almost comical. But a large part of our success is due to the outpouring of support in the New York start-up community. So, thank you.

In particular I wanted to thank Philip James and Mark Angelillo, Rikki Tahta and Perry Blacher, Matt Milner, Brett Petersel, Jay Levy, Ari Weinberg, Justin Tsang and David Ambrose, Gary Vaynerchuk, Vin Vicanti and Jim Moran, Nate Westheimer and Jonah Keegan – thank you for all of the awesome insight, advice, referrals and support!

And for everyone else who took the time to chat with us or answer some of our questions at an event or on the nextNY Google group, THANK YOU!

I’m humbled and honored to be part of this community.

Lessons Learned

The other night some friends insisted we go out and celebrate – “How happy are YOU!?” was the question of the evening.

But what's so surprising to me is that while I'm certainly happy about this, I’m happy for different reasons than I would have ever imagined when we started the company. I thought I'd be thrilled by being able to say "my company was acquired”.

But the “funny thing” is, that's not what made me happy at all. That old cliché comes to mind:

“Success is a journey not a destination.”


What made these last few years so amazing was simply the experience itself and most importantly, the lessons I learned along the way.

While there are probably more takeaways than I can count, these have to be my top three:

1. Principles, not Methods:

I can’t think of a better way to say this myself, so I’m simply going to quote Emerson:

“As to methods there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.”


It’s easy to get lost in the day-to-day grind of running a start-up. But as long as you have a solid framework from which to make decisions, evaluate opportunities, etc. , you’ll be just fine.

2. Know Your Numbers:

More specifically, get your financials down cold.

Know how big your market is. Know what it costs to acquire a user. Know how much revenue you can generate from that user.

To even begin to calculate these numbers you’ll need to constantly test, measure and optimize every single step in your marketing funnel: various marketing channels, conversion rates, retention rates, landing page design, etc. Constantly testing, measuring and optimizing every step along the way is what will ultimately bring acquisition costs down and lifetime value up.

It’s something we should’ve been doing from Day 1, but like many start-ups, we probably made every mistake along the way and still managed to do “ok” in spite of ourselves ☺

Luckily, we eventually got our act together but I have to say, the sooner the better when it comes to knowing your key metrics and how they relate to your financial performance.

3. Chickens & Eggs:

One of the biggest challenges when developing a social or community-powered site is the old "chicken & egg" problem. People won’t come to your site if there’s nothing there, but if people don’t come to your site then nothing will ever be there – what’s an entrepreneur to do?

There are a few solutions to this problem, some more difficult to implement than the others. You could, of course, develop an app that is “viral” by nature, but what’s the likelihood of that happening (and working just as planned)?

You could also go for the whole “Utility->Network” model. This is where you build the first version of your app so that a single, lonely user finds it valuable. And once you have thousands of individual users, you break down the walls between them and form a “network” (the whole is greater than the sum of its parts). You’ve probably seen this on sites like Del.icio.us.

That’s obviously tough to do with a Q&A site, so what we ultimately did was inject our solution into existing communities. We white-labeled TickerHound and allowed our partners to use it as a knowledge and interaction tool within their websites. This meant we had traffic, an engaged audience and activity right away.

However, not all of our white-label initiatives were as successful as others, which I’ll go into in a separate blog post because there are some serious issues to think through with this strategy as well.

The Next Act…

I also always thought that exiting the business would be the end of the process – hence the term, “exit”. But I'm realizing that while it was the end of one process, it is the beginning of an entirely new one.

We founded TickerHound because people need answers to their questions and working on Wall Street taught me that it wasn't the place they could go to get them. I come from a "blue-collar" working class family and culture, so do my new partners at Tycoon. As opposed to the folks on Wall Street who are making 8 or 9 figures a year, we have a pretty good idea of what most Americans are going through right now.

We can relate to their fears and anxieties. We also know what it takes to make something from nothing.

Together we're hoping to change the world.

So I'm on a new mission now, I’m moving onto a new phase in my professional and personal development and I couldn’t be more grateful.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

NYC Start-up TickerHound Partners with NASDAQ

Having recently celebrated TickerHound's 1-year Anniversary as a public site, I couldn't be happier to announce our first significant technology partnership with a financial media/tech company: The NASDAQ OMX Group (Symbol: NDAQ).

If you go to www.nasdaq.com you can now find TickerHound's Q&A widgets sprinkled across the site. To dive into the co-branded application we built for them just go to http://answers.nasdaq.com.

This is a big moment for the entire team here and we can't wait to roll out some of the other partnerships we have on deck!

Press release is below:


NEW YORK, Apr. 9, 2009 -- TickerHound.com and the NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (Nasdaq:NDAQ) today introduced NASDAQ Answers on Nasdaq.com. This new, real-time Question & Answers platform provides Nasdaq.com users with unbiased, community-powered education for the individual investor.

“We’re very excited that NASDAQ, which has a long history of technological innovation in finance, has chosen TickerHound as one of its first social media offerings,” said Wayne Mulligan, TickerHound’s CEO. “NASDAQ’s implementation of TickerHound is a strong endorsement of our brand. We welcome Nasdaq.com’s support in fulfilling our mission of educating and empowering individual investors.”

"NASDAQ Answers provides an intuitive way for individual investors to ask questions and get answers from other users," said Bruce Hashim, Vice President, NASDAQ OMX Interactive Services. "TickerHound made it easy to integrate their robust software suite and we’re confident these social media features will significantly improve the NASDAQ.com user experience."

Now live on Nasdaq.com, Nasdaq Answers allows users to freely browse questions and answers across a variety of investment-related categories. Free registration with a valid email address is required for users to post or respond to questions. Visit http://answers.nasdaq.com to participate in the discussion.

For more information on NASDAQ Answers, visit http://answers.nasdaq.com.

About TickerHound:

TickerHound is a community-powered education website for individual investors. Launched in 2007 the company has focused on creating a scalable and extensible Q&A platform and partnering with top-tier financial media brands. TickerHound’s goal is to provide unbiased, community-powered education for the individual investor. TickerHound provides its partners with a turnkey solution that will allow them to create, customize and quickly deploy their very own Q&A Community. The company plans to announce more white-label community-powered education features on other websites in the near future. For more information, visit www.tickerhound.com.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

The matters described herein contain forward-looking statements that are made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements about NASDAQ Market Pathfinders and NASDAQ OMX Group's other products and offerings. We caution that these statements are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties or other factors beyond NASDAQ OMX Group's control. These factors include, but are not limited to factors detailed in NASDAQ OMX Group's annual report on Form 10-K, and periodic reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to release any revisions to any forward-looking statements.

# # #

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Happy Birthday TickerHound!

I can hardly believe it's been a whole year!  But WOW, what a year it has been.


12 months ago to the day, George Zhao and I pulled back the curtain and brought TickerHound.com to life...

...and within 15 minutes the site crashed.

Needless to say we've come a long way since then.  

Instead of the single cheap-o box we were running on when we launched, the site is now 100% hosted "in the cloud" on Amazon's EC2/S3 platform.

Thousands of investors have asked thousands of questions and submitted thousands of answers to the site.  Our members are the best in the world - and I can say that because I've personally met and had drinks (alcoholic and non) with dozens of them this year.

We've forged partnerships with a handful of financial media companies such as Investor Place Media, Agora Financial Publishing, Business Financial Publishing, Tycoon Publishing and the list goes on.

And the best part is, we're just getting started!

We made our 3rd hire only 2 short months ago  --  welcome aboard Lou!

We have our largest partnership to date launching in a few weeks -- you won't want to miss this one -- which is why we've been absent from most of the NY Tech events for the last 2 months.

So it goes without saying that we're VERY excited about TickerHound's prospects for 2009. 

But this won't be an easy year.  Then again, when is it ever easy running a start-up?  :)

Our country is entering one of the most challenging economic times we've ever faced.  The crisis before us started in the financial markets, so for a financial-tech company like TickerHound the impact of these tumultuous times becomes apparent very quickly.

We're witnessing a fundamental shift in the financial services industry and I'm excited to be a part of it, but at the same token it's certainly added a level of complexity to our business that we hadn't aticipated when we first launched.  However, the important thing to remember is that in times like these we're presented with once in a lifetime opportunities to really make in impact on our market.  Some of today's greatest companies were forged in the fires of the last downturn.

I firmly believe that now, more than ever, individual investors need to become better educated investors.  Relying on stock brokers and money managers (and even $50 billion-dollar-stealing hedge fund managers) has to become a thing of the past.

With tools out there like Covestor, StockTwits and Wikinvest, an individual investor can level the playing field and manage their money as they see fit.  They have unprecedented access to data, stock ideas and educational material that was once trapped behind high-priced pay walls.

Times they are a changin' and I'm proud and honored to be playing a small part in it.

Here's to another 12 months of sleepless nights, tumultuous markets and some of the most exciting times of my life!

Happy Birthday TickerHound!

Saturday, July 5, 2008

And I'm Back!

For those who don't know, I haven't been "State side" for the last few weeks.

I've been in China hanging out with Yao Ming and his crew preparing for the Olympics.

Ok, maybe it wasn't Yao Ming, but I was definitely hanging out hard in the Middle Kingdom with some old friends. I have plenty of pictures on the way, so sit tight.

All in all it was a great trip. I managed to eat food from over 10 different provinces, drink alcohol from over 15 countries and gain 10 lbs. in the process!

I even managed to get some work done. You can now see TickerHound prominently featured on OptionsZone.com's Question of the Day.

This is our 2nd widget partnership with many more on the way throughout the summer.

I hope everyone's having a great 4th of July weekend and I'll be back Monday with my first set of pics!

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Wrestling with Midgets...oops, I mean Widgets...

I'm a big believer in the web trending towards disaggregation.

I have this vision of the web as a gigantic supermarket with all of these different items on the shelf. And we, as consumers, get to stroll up and down the aisles picking and choosing what we want our dinner plate to look like.

But, picture life before supermarkets - before America operated as a surplus economy. We ate what we killed or what we were given. Same goes with how we used to consume content...

In the mid-late 90's it was all about the "portal" and the aggregation of as much content as possible. We would go to the portal that had the most content (e.g. Yahoo!) because chances are we'd find something we liked there.

Then we slowly evolved towards the aggregation, indexing and searching of content via sites like Google, Digg, etc.

But now we're at the point where people are savvy and willing enough to take charge of their experience on the web and decide what their "dinner plate" will look like. And if the web is the super market, then the widgets are the groceries.

For those that don't know, a widget is basically a small software utility that resides within another web site...think of it like having a site within a site. Some widgets play music, others allow visitors to communicate with one another, etc.

For entrepreneurs of today, widgets will play an increasingly important role in how we build our respective businesses. The game has changed from, "How do we get the community to come to us?" into, "How can we go to where the communities already are?".

The most popular application of widgets has obviously been on sites like Facebook and MySpace where widget developers have been able to build monstrous followings in very short periods of time - I've seen some Facebook widgets explode from 0 to 5 million registered users in a few short weeks. That's unprecedented in the "destination" web, but when you go to where the audiences already are, you really begin to leverage the physics of the "widgetized web".

So how does this apply to me and TickerHound?

Well, since we have such a belief in the web becoming more decentralized, we want to capitalize on that trend and position ourselves to take advantage of it. So we're building a suite of widgets for TickerHound that other financial publishers, content providers and communities can use to enhance their sites and make their lives easier.

We've already kicked off development on a couple of the widgets but now that we're approaching the more complex stuff, we've been wrestling with some tough questions.

I'll be sharing some of those issues here and on the TickerHound blog in the coming weeks. I hope to get some great feedback from all of you!

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Is There a Monster in Your Portfolio?

Yesterday on TickerHound.com, a member asked: “What do you think about Monster.com?“.

I haven’t thought about this company for a long time. But once I started to really take stock of our current economic climate and Monster’s business model, I began to see why I needed to tell all my friends to double check their portfolios and make sure they weren’t holding onto any shares of this one.

Monster Worldwide (Nasdaq: MNST) is one of the world’s largest online job databases. The company is one of the few successful holdouts of the dot-com era and performed rather well after the market began to make a comeback in 2003.

The stock went from a low of $8.57 per share in March of 2003 to a high of $57.40 in April of 2006 - that’s a 569% return in under 3 years. Not bad, not bad at all.

But to keep all this in perspective, the stock was at $91 a share in March of 2000. So over the course of 6 years, the stock was actually down about 37%. Reason being: the recession of 2001 and the subsequent multi-year bear market that followed.

Monster, being so tightly correlated to the job market, got hit so hard because as unemployment went up and companies stopped hiring, their site provided very little value to employers and employees alike.

So now, we’re at the beginning of 2008, it’s pretty obvious we’re heading into a recession (no one knows how bad this could get) and I feel like I’ve seen this movie before.

Many people would tend to agree - Monster’s already down about 30% since the beginning of 2008.

Some may call that oversold, I call it “the tip of the iceberg“.

If we were simply talking about an equities market “correction”, then I’d say we’ll be coming out of the downturn by the 3rd quarter. But we’re talking about a crisis in the credit markets here - we haven’t had to deal with this since the 70’s and when you stack inflation on top of it we’re looking at a “perfect storm” scenario.

So this isn’t even a matter of performing deep financial analysis or picking apart the chart to identify a pattern. Let’s use some common sense (an underused asset in many investors’ tool boxes) here and see if we can figure out what’s going to happen to Monster…I think asking ourselves a few questions will be a good way to proceed:

  • Do you think companies are going to be hiring aggressively or laying people off?
  • Do you think they’re going to want to pay to list their jobs or will they simply use word of mouth to attract the relatively small number of employees they might hire?
  • Is it a good sign or a bad sign when 3 - 4 top executives leave the company over the last 3 months?

I feel like I’m watching a rerun of 2001 here and Monster’s on its way to $10 per share!

Now, I’ve never been one to go short a stock…it’s just not something I’m comfortable doing.

But you should definitely have a look at your portfolio, because if you have “a Monster” lurking in there, it’d be a smart move to rid of it and get rid of it quick!

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

I Got a Google App Engine Account!

Sorry, I might be running a company right now, but I'm still a geek at heart.

Scoble had the Qik cam going during this evening's Google Campfire event where they announce Google App Engine - a direct competitor to Amazon's AWS (S3, EC2 and SimpleDB) offerings. Unlike Amazon, however, with Google App Engine you don't have to worry about instantiating machines, adding new ones, clustering, etc. You just create an app, upload, tweak a bit and Google takes care of the rest. Scaling, clustering, backup, etc.

For a small company without a SysAdmin, this solution is going to be extremely important!

Right now they only support Python and since TickerHound was developed using PHP we won't be able to use the service right away. But we're creating some other mini-applications at the moment that this will be perfect for.

Good news though - according to Google, "Python is simply the FIRST language we'll support, it won't be the ONLY language." So as soon as this thing supports PHP, TickerHound is going to be moving.

The one negative I see right off the bat is that it's still a proprietary platform - it doesn't seem like it'll be easy to move to another service (if one ever wanted to). That doesn't give me the old "warm n' fuzzy", but if this platform is as good as it sounds, I doubt I'd want to move anyway.

Built in analytics, trouble shooting, version control, roll backs, monitoring, etc. - Google App Engine seems pretty tight to me! Psyched to have an account and I'll be posting updates and links to our apps as we build them.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Google to Buy Expedia? No Way!

Re-blog from TickerHound Blog:

I saw this question come up on TickerHound the other day and just had to write a post on it.

A member asked, “Expedia’s been up this week on Google acquisition rumors - what do you think?read more>>

Ok, now I might have to eat my hat on this one but my gut (and plain business logic) makes me think otherwise. Anybody who is saying different, I won’t mention them by name, is probably doing so out of ignorance, desire for attention or a bit of both.

One has to understand that Google isn’t some “dot com” growth engine that’s looking to build at any cost. This company is extremely disciplined when it comes to its finances and it shows in the bottom line – but more on that in a moment.

The point I’m trying to make is that Google is not going to swallow up a company simply to add eyeballs, revenue or whatever else to the Google pie. They’ll only acquire a company when it compliments their core business of search and search advertising.

For example, YouTube.com – Google acquired the company for $1.6 billion last year and hasn’t looked back since. YouTube serves up roughly hal the videos on the web right now and I really believe Google has the wallet, connections, etc. to deal with the copyright issues the service faces. The other thing to recognize is that YouTube wasn’t just some online video site. The service fit within Google’s model of content aggregation, indexing and search – and then monetizing that through advertising.

YouTube doesn’t create content, they aggregate it, index it and make it available to the public…strangely similar to Google’s search engine. The same applies to many of the acquisitions, albeit smaller, that Google has made over the years…

  • Writely.com which formed the foundation of Google’s Office applications: users publish documents and Google hosts and indexes them.
  • Blogger.com: Bloggers post tons of content which Google indexes and monetizes with advertisements.
  • And the list goes on…

Now if Google acquired Expedia they would be entering an entirely new business: E-Commerce.

This might make you say, “Well, why does that matter, money is money, right?”.

WRONG!

Money is always money, but the question is, what does it COST to get that money? In other words, what’s your Return on Capital?

Right now Google has an average Return on Equity of 21%.

Expedia: 5%

Why on earth would Google take on a business that would make its margins worse off?

Answer: They wouldn’t!

Like I said, this is just my opinion and if Google comes out next week and announces that they’ve taken over Expedia, I’ll issue a public apology on TickerHound.com. But, as I said before, my gut and business logic are telling me otherwise.

The one travel company I could realistically see Google taking over would be Kayak.com – it’s a privately held travel SEARCH company. They index and search over 140 travel sites in an effort to find you the cheapest airfares, hotels, etc.

While I “think” this would be a match made in heaven, Kayak is a privately held company and I have no idea what their financials look like. But from a synergistic perspective, Google-Kayak makes a lot more sense than the Expedia story.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

3 Problems with the Financial Services Industry

Here are the main problems with the financial services industry as I see it:

1. Broker/Client Interests are NEVER Aligned

You may be asking, “Well if I make more money doesn’t my broker make more money? And isn’t that good for the both of us?”

Theoretically, yes. However, as long as an adviser is paid based on the number of trades you make or the amount of money you keep in your account then he or she is NEVER motivated to do well for you.

They are not paid based on how well your stocks perform – whether or not your account goes up or down they still get paid a commission every single time you buy and sell a stock.

That’s like having a car mechanic who gets paid for the number of times he fixes your car – he’ll just make sure it stays broken for as long as possible and will continue to steal your money!

2. It’s Never About Making You Wealthy

The other thing to realize is that the people who work on Wall Street don’t want you to become insanely wealthy. If that happened then there’s a chance you’d leave them.

There’s a chance you’d stop playing the game.

So why would they try to make you wealthy? Answer: they won’t!

Instead they feed you products like Mutual Funds and Index Funds so you’ll just mimic the market and do average! Not good, not bad, just average.

3. They Always Keep Control

And one of the biggest scams that Wall Street has going for them is that they convince the investing public that investing on their own is dangerous. They convince everybody that in order to do well you need an army of analysts and bankers to tell you which stocks are good and which stocks are bad. Then, and only then, can you profit in the market!

If that were the case then why do most Mutual Funds have a tough time beating the market? And on the flipside of that argument, why does the most successful investor in the history of the world have an office of only 8 people?

Bottom line: There’s no good reason why you can’t do just as well investing on your own if you equip yourself with the right information!

Blurring The Line

As you can see there’s a serious problem in this business – there’s always a clear line in the sand: “you” and “them”. It’s never “us”.

We need to change that and we need to change it fast. We need to come up with a way where you and those you take advice from are sitting on the same side of the table.

The only way that gets done is if we change the nature of the client-advisor relationship – it can no longer be a “one way relationship”, it has to become a relationship of reciprocation, a “two way relationship”. Let me explain what I mean…

As of right now what happens when you buy a stock?

Your broker calls you (or vice versa) and rattles off a couple of stocks – you pick the one that sounds best and you buy it. That’s a one directional relationship – your advisor pushes information toward you.

Now, think about it this way – what if you could sit down at the same table as your advisor and have him teach you his process for digging through stocks?

Well, we know that would never happen due to the reasons we talked about before – if they gave away the “secret sauce” then you wouldn’t need them anymore. If they showed you how to invest, then you could go off and do it on your own.

Well, for most established companies in this industry that logic makes a lot of sense – it wouldn’t be in their best interests to make you a great investor. It would be in their interests to make you dependent upon them.

That's why I'm so excited about what we're doing at TickerHound - we have a distinct advantage here and that’s why our perspective on the situation is dramatically different from most. Our business isn’t predicated upon keeping you (and other individual investors) under our control.

We want to set the information free and allow you to live up to your fullest investing potential!

There are other companies in this space doing the same thing - Covestor.com, CakeFinancial.com, Wikinvest.com - all great companies and all looking to do the same thing: level the playing field so the individual investors out there have a shot at taking their financial futures into their own hands and making better financial decisions today!

Monday, March 17, 2008

Why Buffett Would Never Buy Google

Yesterday on TickerHound.com, a member asked, “Would Buffett really buy Google?

The question was based on a Fool.com article (click here to read it) that quoted this year’s Berkshire Annual Shareholder Letter where Buffett writes, “It's far better to have an ever-increasing stream of earnings with virtually no major capital requirements. Ask Microsoft or Google.

I could see why this led some to wonder – and the Fool.com even wrote an article about it – if Buffett could potentially invest in Google. This made me laugh if for no other reason than Buffett mentions Microsoft in the same sentence…a company he knows intimately (considering Bill Gates sits on Berkshire’s board) but has yet to ever invest in.

But let’s leave that part out of the equation for a moment, let’s just look at the “Google angle” and try to answer the question: Would Buffett really buy Google?

For consistency’s sake, I’m going to analyze this in the exact same way the Fool.com article did:

Is The Business Simple and Understandable?

Definitely!

Google is an ad broker – plain and simple.

We can talk about their technology all we want – and believe me, that’s what makes their ability to broker ad dollars so effective – but at the end of the day, the way the company makes 99% of its money is by putting publishers and advertisers together.

That’s a pretty plain vanilla business to me (regardless of all the sophisticated search technology they have on the backend).

Do They Have Favorable Long Term Economics?

I’m going to skip this for a moment and come back to it at the end. You’ll see why below.

Is Management Candid and Competent?

I’d have to give the affirmative answer on this one as well.

The founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, both have the better part of their net worth’s tied up in Google stock. That means management’s interests and the share holders’ interests are certainly aligned – something Buffett always looks for in a company he’s buying.

And in terms of candor and competence – their execution speaks for itself and if you’ve read Google’s annual reports and even their S-1 filing, you’d know that they’re candid and up-front about how they manage their business.

So this item gets checked off the list as well.

Is The Price Right?

Here’s where we run into problems…

Buffett’s brilliance isn’t based on the fact that he knows how to value an asset…I know a lot of folks who can value an asset.

My father knew exactly what we should pay for our home when I was a kid.

I could tell you right off the bat how much I’d pay for new car.

In fact, Finance 101 teaches people basic asset valuation models – more specifically, Discounted Cash Flow analysis.

The ability to value an asset isn’t difficult…you just plug some numbers into the equation and you get your value.

The difficult part is making sure the NUMBERS themselves are the right numbers.

So now you’re probably asking, “How do we know if the numbers we’re using are correct?

Well, you’ll never be able to tell if the numbers are EXACTLY correct – you’ll have to use your best judgment (and even then you’re probably going to be off, and that’s why in Ben Graham’s infinite wisdom he taught Buffett – and thousands of other value investors – to apply a “margin of safety” approach to business valuation…but that’s another story).

But here’s the caveat (and this goes back to the “Does the business have favorable long term economics?” question)…according to the Fool.com article, because the internet has favorable long term economic characteristics, and Google is by far and away the leader of the internet pack at the moment, they assume that Google will therefore have favorable long term economic characteristics as well.

But that just isn’t so…the tech sector is predicated upon the process of creative destruction. Companies must find new and innovative ways of doing things or they’re destined to become obsolete. I mean, how many times have we seen this happen in the last 10 years?

To argue that Google will ALWAYS maintain a competitive advantage in a space that changes by the hour is foolish (no pun intended).

That’s why Buffett only invests in mature companies that compete in mature industries. It makes the tough part of business valuation (using the right numbers) much, much easier.

So to answer the original question as simply as possible, would Buffett ever buy Google?

In my opinion...Not anytime soon!

Click here to leave your answer to this question.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Integrating user feedback...

Today we launched our new and improved TickerHound design!

Well, the design isn't very "new", it's just been updated a bit based on all the feedback we received from the TickerHound community over the last 10 weeks.

From the get go we told ourselves that we wanted to build a site that our users absolutely LOVED to visit. Our goal was to create the iPod of financial education sites - and no, I don't mean it would play music when you visited, I mean that we wanted the user experience to be so damned compelling and so pleasurable that every visitor felt like the site was built just for them.

So in order to do that we knew we'd have to be in constant communication with our members. We knew we'd have to actively solicit feedback from and actively LISTEN to what they were telling us.

Now, when requesting feedback, it's very easy to take the stuff you want to hear and throw out the rest. I believe it's what psychologists call the "confirmation bias" - you tend to only pay attention to the data that supports your predetermined hypotheses. Being that this predisposition is hardwired into our brains, we knew we had to be OVERLY conscious of it and integrate it into our decision making process on a regular basis.

So as we worked with our design team over at nclud, LLC. (great guys, super talented, I highly recommend them) we would constantly revisit older feedback surveys. We would reexamine data we originally tossed out and we'd revisit features we decided not to add - some of them stayed in the trash can, others ended up on the site.

The point being - while you can't take every single suggestion from every single member, you are doomed to failure if you don't actively examine and reexamine what your users are telling you. Those who fail to ACTIVELY LISTEN will die!

Ok fine, I'm being a little over dramatic here but the point is still the same - listen to your members and they will help you succeed.

The other thing we had to remember was that sometimes our members will tell us more through their actions than their words. For instance, when I saw that we were getting a higher percentage of user activity per day on older questions (questions not on the first page of the questions list), I knew we had to add more numbers to our pagination scheme (it used to be 3, now it's 9).

We also relied HEAVILY on our Google Analytics data - yes, we're cheap, we use Google Analytics. Here's a perfect example:

One of the goals with the redesign was to increase the amount of time visitors spent on the site. It's not particularly low or anything but it'd be great to get it higher (obviously). So I examined the pages that have gotten the highest exit rates over the last 8 weeks. Then I used Google Analytics to track the visitors' paths through the site until they hit the high-exit pages.

It turns out that the pages they exited on tended to only be the 2nd Question page they visited (these are the pages that contain the full question and the associated answers - if any). And they would tend to exit more often than not if it was a question page that didn't have an answer yet (seems intuitive but it just didn't occur to us until we examined the data).

So now we reworked the code for displaying the "Related Questions" in the right-column of the Question pages. Now, the top 2 "Related Questions" will be questions that have at least 1 answer.

While we don't have a lot of data yet, it's clear from early tests that our strategy is paying off in terms of "page views per visit" which I feel will ultimately translate into more time spent on the site.

We'll be adding more features throughout March and we've also made it a company mission to add 2 new features (that have been requested by our users of course) each and every month.

We might not be the sharpest tools in the shed, but we want to be the best LISTENERS on Wall Street!

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Google Ads - The Real Story

So the talk of the tape last week was obviously Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). The Mountain View search giant has been on a downward spiral since the end of last year and showed no signs of letting up now.

In fact, the stock is down over 33% in 2 months alone – that’s over $70 billion dollars in shareholder value completely wiped out in a matter of weeks.

Last week was no exception – after a negative report came out from web traffic reporting company, comScore, Google’s stock slid from $505 on Monday down to $471 by the close on Friday. That’s a decrease of over $10 billion in market value in a single week based on a single report.

I can’t begin to tell you how many news articles and blog posts I read that had the, “See we knew Google’s success couldn’t last forever”, feel to them. The basis for this insightful, albeit untimely conclusion: the comScore report. On a side note: I bet the vast majority of the analyst and editors behind those articles were probably the same people who predicted Google would go to $800 per share only 3 months earlier.

In any case, the real issue here is the comScore report.

Was it accurate?

Did the media draw meaningful conclusions from it?

Were the conclusions accurate?

Nobody seemed to bother asking those questions – well, if they did, those weren’t the folks getting all the publicity last week. The only articles making the front page or the “most popular” lists were those calling for Google’s head on a platter, so to speak. So let’s fast forward to the end of the week when comScore published a post on its blog that pretty much read, “Oops, we might’ve given you the wrong impression”.

My favorite excerpt with respect to the report:

The information triggered a flurry of reactions in the media and the financial community that centered on two concerns: 1) a potentially weak first quarter outlook for Google, and 2) an indication that a soft U.S. economy is beginning to drag down the online advertising market.

While we do not claim that these concerns are unwarranted, we believe a careful analysis of our search data does not lend them direct support.

If you’d like to read the entire blog post, click here.


The basic gist of the blog post was that while total click-throughs may have been down, it was due to a conscious effort on Google’s part to eliminate ineffective ads. Meaning, there was less opportunity for clicks because Google was proactively displaying less ads, thus increasing the dollar return on the ads that were displayed.

Bear Sterns’ analysts aside, I think most folks realized that this report was overblown – at the end of the day, 3rd party data doesn’t mean everything…money does. And according to many Google clients, some of whom I know personally, Google is still their primary advertising solution and they’re seeing more and more money from the company each month.


Check out this report from Alley Insider which talks about one of the larger ad buyers on Google and why they’ll continue to use Google as one of their primary marketing tools:

Ad Buyer: No Slowdown In Search Or Google

All in all it was a rough week for the company and the stock may not be out of the woods yet, but there’s a valuable lesson to be learned here: It pays to do your own homework!

That’s why I was so happy to see a few TickerHound.com members ask questions on this exact topic…one of the recent questions: “What will happen to Google now? Is the selloff going to continue, or has it bottomed out?”

Click here to weigh in on the situation.

While I couldn’t tell you when Google’s stock will be on the rise again, I can say for sure that this company isn’t going to be another “dot bomb” sob story. I’m definitely a long term bull on this stock.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

A Personal Touch

I'm a big proponent of using Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) as a primary benchmark for business success. And not just at the end of the year when sizing up our P&L statements. ROIC has to be used for every business function in order to know if it was "worth" it or not...period.

That's why we use tools like email newsletters and blogs to communicate with our members at TickerHound. It's a "one to many" device - meaning, we write a message once and it reaches many people (at the same cost). It's what makes software and the web such a highly profitable medium.

But I think that in the search for increasing ROIC, we might lose that personal touch that helps build businesses. There's something to be said for appearing to be a "big company" - customers want to feel like they're part of something bigger than they are, they want a feeling of security, credibility and reliability that comes with being aligned with a large company.

But I can't help but feel like "being big" might not be an advantage sometimes - especially on the web. Striving for increasing ROIC in the short term might hurt a business over the long term. So I've been thinking a lot about the web and how it was supposed to "level the playing field" and put small companies on the same level as big companies...and it's certainly done that.

The other thing it's done is it has made this world a much smaller place to live in. I can chat with my friends in China, California and New York just as easily as the person next to me. I know what they're doing via their "Status" on Facebook. I know if and who they're dating, what bar they went to this weekend and I even get to see the tan they got on their latest vacation.

So with that being said, should web start-ups continue to adopt "big business" images or should we start to look at what makes "small businesses" work?

And I don't just mean "small" in terms of revenue or number of employees...I mean "small" in terms of the community the business serves. So the small businesses I'm thinking of are those that serve local communities - the pizzeria down the block from my house, or the dry cleaner at the corner - those small businesses.

Now, the most successful small business I know of was Tony's Deli - an Italian Deli owned by my friend's parents in my old neighborhood of Whitestone, Queens. Tony's was a typical Italian deli - fresh cold cuts, great hot food prepared by my friend's mother and every single time you'd walk in they'd shout your name from across the counter and ask how you were.

It didn't feel like you were walking into a store - you didn't feel like you were walking into a place of business. It felt like you were walking into a friend's place, grabbing some food and by coincidence leaving a little money on the counter. They knew your name, your family's names, the names of your pets. It was great.

But then one day this MONSTEROUS Italian Deli opened up just 3 doors down! They had more food, more selection, fresher produce, etc....AND, they were charging 50% less than Tony's.

So here you have a situation where a competitor enters the marketplace with a better product at a cheaper price - most "business strategists" would say that Tony's would be done for.

But that's not what happened - no sir.

Without Tony's asking for help or even bad mouthing the competition, the community rallied around the local deli. The lines got longer, people bought more things more often and whenever you would walk in you'd be able to hear at least one customer mention that they'd "never shop at the place down the block, hope they go outta business!". It was amazing - Tony's actually did better when the new competitor hit the markerplace because they had captured the loyalty of the community they served.

The "Tony's Community" became champions of Tony's success - the "bigger" company was considered a common enemy that the community could rally against. And boy oh boy did it work out well for Tony's...within 6 months the competing Deli was out of business and in the last 15 years not a single new Deli has tried to open in that community.

Tony's became the king because the community decided it should be so.

And that's what prompted me to do the first truly "small" business tactic that I've done since we decided to launch TickerHound last year.

I began to personally e-mail "thank you" letters to every TickerHound member...and not the standard, "Welcome to TickerHound" e-mails everybody gets. I e-mailed them thanking them for joining and for their contributions to the site. These aren't copy & paste, mass production e-mails either. These are letters I personally typed and sent, from my personal e-mail address, to our members.

This is obviously going to lower our ROIC in the short term, but over the long haul I have this belief that it'll help TickerHound become the "Tony's Deli" of the financial education market. And even if it doesn't, I know that at the very least I'll have made some friends, built some loyalty and have gotten some invaluable feedback on our product - so no matter what, it's a win-win for me, for TickerHound and for the community.

So here's my message to other entrepreneurs out there - "think small".

Friday, February 1, 2008

Psychics, Fortune Tellers and Investment Advisors

You may be looking at the title of this article and scratching your head wondering: what do Psychics, Fortune Tellers and Investment Advisors all have in common?

Well, for one thing they all try to predict the future in one form or another. Psychics and Fortune Tellers supposedly use some type of extra-sensory perception to see into the future. They use tools like tarot cards, crystal balls and chanting in order to tell you what your future holds.

Will you be rich? Will you live a long life? Plenty of people out there turn to psychics and fortune tellers for answers to these questions.

Now you’re probably thinking, “Ok Wayne, what does that have to do with investment advisors?”

Answer: PLENTY!

Instead of using crystal balls and cards with funny symbols on them, investment advisors use charts and financial statements. Now, I’ll be the first to admit that investment advisors, stock brokers and money managers are a far cry from the 1-900-PSYCHIC people you see on TV. But that’s not what’s important…what’s important is WHY people feel the need to rely on these “predictors of the future” in the first place.

Why do we, as human beings, feel the unending need to know about the future?

In fact, I’ll share a little tidbit of information with you – human beings are the ONLY animals that conciously plan for the future. And not knowing what our future holds gives us a TREMENDOUS amount of anxiety. So much so that we do everything in our power (and mostly through the “power” of others) to plan for, predict and try to control our futures.

And that’s why fortune tellers, psychics and investment advisors are so successful – they truly understand human nature and they PREY UPON IT! They prey upon your desire to know your future, they prey upon your desire to profit or protect yourself from your future…and most of all, they prey upon your anxieties and insecurities about the fact that you CANNOT control your future.

They tell you that since you can’t protect yourself from, predict or control your future that you should rely on them, “the experts”, to do that for you. And there’s something very comfortable in doing that. It allows people to relieve themselves of the responsibility of their future circumstances.

Didn’t become rich? Well the fortune teller was wrong, not you.

Lost money in the market? Your broker was wrong, not you.

And that is precisely the psychology that MUST change in order for individual investors to break free from the shackles of the “Wall Street Regime”. Investors must realize that they have the power, the intelligence and the ability to do better than the rest of the market.

Your brokers, your money managers and even the “professional mutual fund managers” all try to mimic the market. If they performed as well as the S&P, they brag about it and are given monstrously large financial incentives to do so. In what other profession does somebody get so handsomely rewarded for simply doing AVERAGE?

My friend, we are taught to do AVERAGE in grade school!

If you want to do ABOVE average…if you want to be an extraordinary investor…if you want to unlock those shackles and break out into the world of TRUE FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE then you have to stop relying on these “stock market fortune tellers” and start empowering yourself!

And maybe you’ve already made that leap – maybe you’ve already taken the responsibility, shed your fears and made the decision to take control of your financial future. If you have, then congratulations! You’re one of the rare few and you deserve all of the rewards coming to you.

But if you haven’t made that leap yet, if you haven’t decided to put yourself in a position to prosper then I ask you – in fact, I CHALLENGE you to make that leap today.

The only way to shed those chains and become an independent and successful investor – one who outperforms the “herd” – is to equip yourself with as much information as possible. You have to take the time and make the effort to educate and empower yourself as an investor.

In fact, at the end of this article I’m going to give you a list of sites and services that I personally think can put you on a path to financial independence. And these aren’t sites you have dole out tens of thousands of dollars to be a part of. These sites are all free and are all there to help put the power back in the hands of the people – namely, you!

But it won’t be easy…no, no, no. The journey to financial freedom is certainly not the path that’s paved with gold. It’s a rough road ahead of you, but I promise that the destination is more fulfilling and rewarding than you could ever imagine.

So begin that journey today, and drop me a line from your yacht once you get there!

Websites Dedicated to Educating and Empowering Individual Investors:

1. TickerHound.com
2. Wikinvest.com
3. Covestor.com
4. Caps.Fool.com
5. SeekingAlpha.com
6. Marketocracy.com
7. TheStreet.com
8. Investopedia.com
9. BullPoo.com
10. TheTycoonReport.com

Good luck to you and God bless – you’ve undertaken an enormous responsibility and while it might be tough at first, you’ll ultimately be a better investor and a happier person for it. Congratulations!

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Feedback Forum

So I went to my first feedback forum last night - hosted by Jonah Keegan. The presenters were the co-founders of a new online dating site, CupidsLab.com.

CupidsLab is hoping to take dating to a new level by empowering not only those who are looking to meet that special someone, but by also empowering the lesser known and drastically underappreciated "match maker" population. You all know you have a friend or two out there who has a certain knack for hooking two people up. (NOTE: my previous match maker extraordinaire did such a wonderful job that she ended up matching herself up with me! Good job baby!)

So CupidsLab is going to provide a tool set for empowering the match makers to help them do their "jobs" more effectively.

Last night we all met in a conference room with about 8 other technology entrepreneurs, marketers, journalists and even a VC to listen to some of the challenges CupidsLab is facing. Then everybody started to give feedback...and brainstorm...and give even more feedback.

It was, quite frankly, an AMAZING 3 hours.

You have to understand, I come from a background in traditional finance (brokerage, analysis, etc.) and it is such a rare thing to find people who genuinely want to help each other on Wall Street. Most of the time it's because they either want something immediately in return or because they're working some sort of shady angle.

In any case, last night was the complete opposite of that. We had a room packed with a group of fairly intelligent guys (I'd like to consider myself one of them) who wanted to do nothing more then sip a couple of beers, eat a slice of pizza and brainstorm about business. Not only did CupidsLab come out of it with great ideas and feedback, but it forced me to think through some of the issues I was having with TickerHound in some new ways.

I'll definitely be attending these in the future and I highly recommend it to anyone who has a genuine desire to help other entrepreneurs and learn more about this industry that we're in.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Content and Community

Two of Hagel's 3 C's of the web - Content and Community - are the cornerstone of all User Generated Content (UGC) sites. They are their biggest asset and at the same time their biggest liability - well, maybe not a liability but definitely a challenge.

I mean, think about it:

1. A UGC site's (social networks, blogs, etc.) value is solely predicated on the participation of its members.

2. In some instances like community dating or classified listings sites, there are two classes of users. Think of it like Supply & Demand. On a classified listing site you have those posting ads, but you also need a commensurate amount of people viewing those ads. Like on eBay - you need both buyers and sellers otherwise the site is worthless to both groups.

So here are the inherent difficulties with a model like this:

1. What's the value for an early adopter? In the beginning there's limited content on the site and limited community activity.

2. What if demand (eBays buyers) exceeds supply (eBays sellers) - or vice versa - in a dramatic way?

Those are the two challenges that face most User Generated Content sites.

Here's how TickerHound has addressed some of these issues in the early stages of our Beta period:

With respect to adding value to the early adopters, I've partnered up with InvestorWords.com - an investing and finance dictionary - basically, I've converted their word/definition items into question/answer records in my database.

So even if nobody is on the site we have a minimum number of questions and answers that at least cover the "ever green" type content (e.g. What's a stock option?, What's the dow jones?, etc.). That doesn't solve the community issues, but it certainly helps with the content (which could keep people there long enough to develop a community). So far it's proven to be fairly successful.

But the supply and demand issues are rough. Too many questions not getting answered and you have a lot of unhappy first time users...and they won't care how great the service "could" be, they'll just walk away. So I'm trying very hard to cultivate the community slowly:

- No intensive marketing just yet
- Writing a weekly newsletter highlighting certain members and their contributions
- Reaching out to "power members" individually to thank them and ask what else we can do to make their experience on the site better.

It's been working well and I'm going to continue doing many of these things as I go forward.

There are other issues that are beginning to creep up, however. Now I have to start thinking about SPAM issues - how can we effectively keep stock scams off the site as traffic begins to build? How do we quickly get SPAM off the site when it does appear? How do we evangelize our community so they'll also help police the site?

These are questions that I - and every other UGC site owner - has to answer if we hope to be successful. That's primarily why I decided to attend a meet-up on Tuesday that's going to be hosted by Cupid's Lab where some other NY tech entrepreneurs are going to meet and discuss some of the very issues I just raised.

Here's to reaching some conclusions on these issues!

Thursday, January 24, 2008

TickerHound is on Facebook!

TickerHound is now on Facebook!

You can become a fan of TickerHound on our Facebook company page. Simply click here and then click the Become a Fan link on the right side of the page.

We put up some pictures of TickerHound Head Quarters too - so check it out to see where we work and what we do all day to make TickerHound a great place for you.

Enjoy!

The TickerHound Battle Station

Ok fine, it isn't a battle station, but we love our offices nonetheless. So, we figured we'd share some photos of our lovely office space with you today. If you're ever in lower Manhattan please let us know - we're only a couple of blocks off of St. Marks Place and are always up for a cup of coffee with other TickerHounds.

Silicon Alley

The view! Silicon Alley at its finest!

TickerHound conference room

The TickerHound conference room -- where all the planning for world domination (oops, I mean for creating a useful site) begins. :)

George Zhao Technology Guru

George, our technology guru, explaining the finer points of how the site works...go George!

TickerHound office

The WHOLE office!

Wayne Mulligan TickerHound

Wow, we do have some funny looking people working here ;)

We hope you've enjoyed our little tour of the TickerHound office...come back again soon!

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Back in the Building!

So I'm finally back and feeling great!

Had an amazing time out on the West Coast - I definitely spent way too much money and time drinking wine, but what the hell, it's not everyday I get to sit in the middle of wine country and sip a glass of vino while the sun is going down.

But now I'm back and ready to get down to business.

My "tech" new year's resolution was to begin blogging more often...once or twice a month just isn't cutting it. The main problem has been lack of time. I've been blogging a lot over at the corporate blog: http://blog.tickerhound.com.

That really eats up a ton of time each week.

But I'm in the process of hiring 1 - 2 interns, which will hopefully leave me with more time do other things.

Actually, that reminds me, if you know anybody looking for some part-time internship work please send them my way. I'd prefer a college student with some experience in finance/investing. They can e-mail me at HireMe at TickerHound dot com.

I'll be posting pics from my trip soon - along with a few posts about some of the crazy thoughts that have been racking my brain as of late.

Good to be back!

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

TickerHound.com has Launched...Finally!


So we finally did it, we got TickerHound outta the dog house and back on the street!

For those who don't know, this is the project I've been working on for the better part of this year and I can't even begin to describe how happy, relieved and stressed I am (yes, all at the same time).

Happy - that the site is finally out there and getting used by investors for the first time.

Relieved - that it actually got launched on time (we set a pre-Christmas deadline and we beat it by a week!).

Stressed - we had our initial burst of traffic yesterday (not even a lot compared to other sites) and the site started to lock-up. We've got some code optimization to do! But not to worry, we have such talented people over here that I know this will get taken care of sooner than later.

Now my goal is to spread the word about what we're doing and get as much feedback as possible from our members. I really want to include them every step of the way in our planning and product development process.

That's the beautiful thing about doing business on the web - there's never been a time in history where businesses could rely on REAL TIME customer feedback to augment their product development process and strategy. Before the web we had focus groups -- people would come in, use a product in a controlled environment and answer a questionaire. This took time, money and you never got a very clear picture of how a product was used in a more "natural" setting. Don't get me wrong, focus groups are a useful tool and they have their place in a product development process (even a digital one). But, when I can use an automated tool to tell me exactly which links, features, and text are the most appealing to my visitors then I feel that I'm operating with information that will help me make the best possible decisions.

And forget bringing people into a room to answer questions - we have polls, blogs and forums where we can get information from customers right away. Not only d we get great information but our members now have a vested interest in the success of this product because they helped build it! Think about how powerful that is.

That's really what this is all about - building a service that will solve a problem for real people. If we keep listening to our members, giving them what they want and solving problems for them then I'm sure we'll do just fine in this market.

So definitely give TickerHound a look - I'd love any and all feedback.

And check out the official launch post on TickerHound Blog's by clicking here.